Volume 42: Energy Transitions toward Carbon Neutrality: Part V

Trends and Patterns in Green Hydrogen Project Development: A Comprehensive Data-Driven Analysis Joseph Junior NKOU NKOU, Cai Dongsheng, Chiagoziem C. Ukwuoma, Anto Leoba Jonathan, Olusola Bamisile and Qi Huang

Abstract

This comprehensive data science analysis of the IEA’s hydrogen projects database from 2000-2022 reveals accelerating green hydrogen project growth. The descriptive analysis exposes increasing project counts, total capacity, and grid integration over time and by geography. Key countries leading in projects and capacities are Germany, Australia, the USA, France, Spain, and China. Transportation, chemicals, and refining dominate end-use applications. Solar, wind, and hydro lead renewable feedstocks, with over 50% of future capacity from novel electrolysis methods, like SOEC and other electrolysis technologies. Germany’s current and future projects are electrolysis-based, unlike the USA which has a more diversified approach. Clustering uncovers project typologies centered on technology, status, location, and end-use. Sophisticated deep learning forecasting with transformer and RNN models predicts massive future growth expansion (MAE 10.19, MSE 457.74, R2 0.558). The rigorous methodological approach provides unprecedented insights into the swift expansion and budding contours of the global hydrogen sector. These data-driven models unpack project growth dynamics, offering intelligence for policy, research, and industry to strategically harness the bourgeoning hydrogen economy. Overall, this study thoroughly probes the mechanics of green hydrogen project development through ampliative modeling of the most extensive database available.

Keywords decarbonization pathways, techno-economic analysis, multivariate forecasting, green Hydrogen, global clean energy policy, hydrogen value chain configuration