Volume 15: Low Carbon Cities and Urban Energy Systems: Part IV

Scenarios Analysis on the Regional Pathway under the Target of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality：a Case Study of Sichuan Province Yuxiang Wang, Weiqi Li, Zihao Li, Zheng Li

Abstract

This study proposed a regional low-carbon development pathway evaluation model under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality (CPCN) targets. First, regional economic and social development goals, carbon reduction targets and scenarios is set in a top-down manner. Secondly, it designs the development scenarios and goals for different sectors including industry, building, transportation and energy supply. Then, it carries out the integration, evaluation and iteration of these bottom-up solutions until consistent with the set goals. Finally, an empirical study of Sichuan Province using the model is conducted. The results show that (1) under the CPCN scenario, Sichuan’s carbon emissions will peak at 253.1 million tons in 2028 and drop to 44.8 million tons in 2057, and carbon neutrality of energy consumption can be achieved there; (2) carbon peak will be achieved in different sectors in the order of industry (2022), transportation (2030) and construction (2035) and among all energy varieties in the sequence of coal (2015), oil (2025) and gas (2040) in a coordinated, stepwise and well-organized manner; (4) under the carbon neutrality target, Sichuan’s electrification level will rise from 34.7% in 2015 to 75.0% in 2057, and the share of non-fossil power on the supply side will rise from 86.1% in 2015 to 95.7% in 2057.

Keywords Carbon peak, Carbon neutrality, Scenario analysis, Regional pathway, Sichuan province