Volume 11: Sustainable Energy Solutions for Changing the World: Part III

Modeling the Energy Transition of China under Different Peaking Time Based on Global-TIMES Model Lei Yang, Wenying Chen

Abstract

Reaching the CO2 emission peak as soon as possible is significant to limit global warming to well below 1.5℃. Based on GTIMES model, this paper simulates the transition of China’s energy system under scenarios of energy-related CO2 peaking in 2025 and 2030.The results show that the realization of peaking earlier mainly depends on the transition of energy structure. Accordingly, coal consumption will be significantly reduced from now on, and non-fossil energy such as solar and wind would increase significantly, while biomass also needs to be developed to meet the requirement of carbon neutrality. The power system needs to start de-carbonization as soon as possible. The realization of earlier peaking time can avoid some unnecessary carbon locking and lay a foundation for China to achieve carbon neutrality.

Keywords energy-related CO2 emission, peaking time, energy transition, GTIMES