Volume 5: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part IV

Modeling Oil Sands Production in an Integrated Assessment Model: Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Rui Xing, Christopher Roney, Diego V Chiappori, Matthew T Binsted, Evan Arbuckle, Evan G R Davies

Abstract

In the past four decades, oil sands production in Canada has increased dramatically. More recently, Canada has developed carbon emission reduction targets to meet its Nationally Determined Contributions and Mid-Century Strategy to reduce GHG emissions. Quantification and assessment of GHG emissions from the oil sands industry – a high emitter – is necessary to track progress toward meeting emissions reduction and technology development. This study uses GCAM, an integrated assessment model, to examine the energy consumption of oil sands extraction and upgrading. Five traditional and cogeneration extraction technologies are compared in model simulations for energy cost and nonenergy (operating) cost. Results show that energy consumed by oil sands production will triple by 2050 because of the expected increase in oil sands production. Cogeneration technologies result in reduced CO2 emissions.

Keywords integrated assessment model, energy system for oil sands, industry energy consumption, CO2 emission projection