Volume 31: Clean Energy Technologies towards Carbon Neutrality

Identification of structural drivers of energy transition: empirical evidence from China Pibin Guo, Xianmei Liu, Xiuli Liu, Qinglong Wu

Abstract

Using Data from China from 1995 to 2019, a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used to explore the impact of seven structural factors (including the production scales, energy intensity, industrial structure, income level, urbanization rate, and population size) and six sectors on the energy transition. The following basic conclusions are drawn: (1) The effect of China’s energy transition is significant. During the study period, China’s clean energy consumption continued to grow, with an average annual growth rate of 16.13%. (2) The impact of each driving factor on the energy transition varies. The production scale factor is the most important factor that promotes the energy transition, the energy intensity effect is the main factor that inhibits the energy transition, and the inhibiting effect of the energy intensity on the production sector is significantly higher than that of the residential sector. The influence of industrial structure changed from inhibition to promotion. The income level plays a promoting role, and the contribution value gradually increases. The factors of urbanization level and population size promote the energy transition, but their impact is relatively small. (3) Different driving factors have different impacts on the energy transition in different sectors. The service industry and industry are the sectors with the highest clean energy consumption in China.

Keywords energy transition, driving factors, LMDI, carbon neutrality China