Volume 5: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part IV

How Long Can the U.S. Tight Oil Boom Last? Wand Jianliang, Bentley Yongmei, Bentley Roger, Feng Lianyong

Abstract

The long‐term production of U.S. tight oil is forecast by using a composite model combining the Generalized Weng and Gompertz models. We show that U.S. tight oil production is likely to reach a peak within ten years, between 2019 and 2028, at a production rate between 7 and 13 million barrels per day (Mb/d), depending on the size of the ultimately recoverable resource (URR) estimate. Our most‐likely ‘medium‐case’ URR scenario suggests the peak year is probably around 2025, at a production rate of about 10 Mb/d. Comparing our results with those of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that the EIA is over‐optimistic in its long‐term production forecast of U.S. tight oil.

Keywords tight oil; shale revolution; production forecast; ultimately recoverable resources