Volume 27: Closing Carbon Cycles – A Transformation Process Involving Technology, Economy, and Society: Part II

How Independent is the Energy Sector in the EU? Kristiāna Dolge, Dagnija Blumberga

Abstract

The current geopolitical situation and the Russian invasion in Ukraine have urgently increased the role of energy independence in national energy security. Nevertheless, the European Union, is still very dependent on imports of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas, which are mainly sourced from neighboring Russia. Now more than ever, to accelerate Europe’s energy independence and transition to carbon neutrality, it is critical to restructure national energy infrastructures and promote the rapid development of local renewable energy resources. To understand whether the EU are ready to accelerate the decarbonization of their energy system by abandoning energy imports from Russia, it is necessary to assess what progress has been made so far in reducing net energy imports. In this study, Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis is used to examine the changes in net energy imports in the EU-27 during the period from 1995 to 2020. The change in net energy imports is measured by four main factors: changes in energy dependence, changes in energy intensity, changes in economic growth, and population. The results show that not only has no progress been made in reducing the EU’s energy import dependency, but the situation has actually worsened and become more unstable over the past five years.

Keywords energy independence, LMDI, decomposition analysis, net energy imports