Volume 30: Urban Energy Systems towards Carbon Neutrality

Forecasting Building Energy Consumption in Seoul using ARIMA under Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios Jiyeon Park, Sujin Lee, Na Li, Steven Jige Quan

Abstract

For the Seoul Metropolitan Government to meet the goal of 2050 carbon neutrality, there is a crucial need to understand future building energy consumption for more informed policy-making. This study aims to predict residential electricity uses in 6 communities of Seoul Metropolitan City under different future development scenarios. A total of 25 prediction models corresponding to 25 districts in Seoul were constructed using seasonal ARIMA with exogenous variables. These models consider CDD, HDD, total population, elderly ratio, and GRDP from 2010 to 2019 as predictive variables. Electricity consumption from residential buildings in each district at the end of the year 2050 was then estimated from the models under four development scenarios. The four scenarios were defined based on two SSP-RCP climate change scenarios and two KOSIS socioeconomic scenarios. The forecasting results were further aggregated at the community level in Seoul. The aggregated results indicated that even under the same sets of scenario assumptions, the trend of future residential energy change varies across different communities. Therefore, different measures should be taken when implementing community-level plans to reduce building energy.

Keywords building energy forecasting, urban development scenarios, community development plan, carbon neutral city development,