Volume 41: Energy Transitions toward Carbon Neutrality: Part IV

Empirical characterisation of agent investment behaviour to evaluate the China’s residential heating transition using the MUSE-RASA model Diego Moya, Fangyi Li, Haijia Jiao, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes

Abstract

Energy-related investment decision-makers in the residential sector are heterogeneous in the sense that their preferences are rooted in socioeconomics, values, and perceptions, even when an ostensibly identical decision task is at hand. This study aims to address one of the challenges associated with long-term energy transition modelling by capturing the human dimension in energy system modelling. A novel multi-agent modelling approach, the MUSE-RASA model [1], is used to evaluate heterogeneous consumer-investors in the residential sector. Survey-based agent characterisation is used in the MUSE-RASA model to illustrate the difference between a single representative agent model and a multi-agent system. A survey of 1,500 Chinese families is used to generate six agents with varying investment goals, technology search strategies, and decision methods for purchasing and upgrading heating systems. The agent-based approach integrates high-resolution gridded data to geographically target the agents on a map. The results suggest that market fragmentation achievable with agent-based approaches are more powerful as closer to the real world.

Keywords Agent-based modelling; decision making; residential heating; large survey; agent heterogeneity.