Volume 25: Accelerated Energy Innovations and Emerging Technologies

Coal Power Demand and Paths to Peak Carbon Emissions in China: A Provincial Scenario Analysis Oriented by CO2-Related Health Impact Boling Zhang, Qian Wang, Ruipeng Tong

Abstract

The pace of emissions reduction in coal power strongly affects the peaking time of total CO2 emissions in China. Applying Kaya identity, Rollback model, and health impact assessment model, this study proposes an integrated framework for simulating coal power demand and the related CO2 emissions in China’s 29 provinces during 2020-2035, with the evaluation of CO2related health impact in life and economic loss. It is found that the total coal power demand in China kept rising by 5.19% per year in 2009-2019. And the projection demand would still increase, ranging from 4687.26 to 8897.13 billion kW·h under the BAS scenario. Results of spatial heterogeneity show that East China would contribute to the greatest CO2 emissions, valuing as 149.47, 156.11, and 190.21 mg/m3 of CO2 concentrations for the period of 2020-2025, 2026-2030, and 2031-2035. Rapid development scenario (RDS) suggests a potential emission reduction path, in which could avoid life loss of 10539 years and economic loss of 1.07 billion dollars nationwide during 2020-2035. Our findings could provide a deeper understanding of potential peaking paths by provinces, and also assist policymakers in better establishing emissions reduction targets for other nations from a top-down perspective, thus could be of global significance.

Keywords coal power demand, carbon peaking, health impact, CO2 emissions