Volume 13: Low Carbon Cities and Urban Energy Systems: Part II

Assessing the contribution of road transport electrification to low-carbon city development using a land use-transport model Runsen Zhang, Junyi Zhang, Yin Long

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often considered as a promising technology and an attractive solution towards low-carbon future. Thus, it is necessary to model the market penetration of EVs and to detect the role of EV adoption in future urban decarbonization scenarios. This study attempts to develop an integrated land use-transport model to examine the interactions among location choice, land use, transport patterns, energy profiles, and economy when implementing the stringent EV policy. Two scenarios are structured to investigate the long-term (to year 2050) impacts of EV adoption on population distribution, land use patterns, transport demand, energy mix, emission profiles, and social welfare. Scenario simulations show that the energy transition and emission reduction can be realized by the stringent EV adoption. The influences of EV penetration on population distribution, land use changes, and emission intensity draw policy implications for transport engineers and urban planners. More importantly, ambitious market diffusion of EVs exerts significant positive effects on emission reduction in city center, while economic benefits tend to occur in suburban areas, implying that EV adoption plays a special role in the spatial organization and structure of cities. Spatial heterogeneity among zones deserves more attention when evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban policies. Since the disaggregated spatial interplays can be handled by this integrated model, such methodology offers a useful tool for sustainable urban planning.

Keywords transport electrification, electric vehicles, land use, transport, interaction