Volume 21: Sustainable Energy Solutions for a Post-COVID Recovery towards a Better Future: Part IV

Increasing the skill of short-term wind speed ensemble forecasts combining forecasts and observations via EMOS Gabriele Casciaro, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Andrea Mazzino

Abstract

All numerical weather prediction models used for the wind industry need to produce their forecasts starting from the main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC, once analysis become available. The six-hour latency time between two consecutive model runs calls for strategies to fill the gap by providing new accurate predictions having, at least, hourly frequency. This is done to accommodate the request of frequent, accurate and fresh information from traders and system regulators to continuously adapt their work strategies. Here, we propose a strategy where quasi-real time observed wind speed and weather model predictions are combined by means of a novel Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) strategy. The success of our strategy is measured by comparisons against observed wind speed from SYNOP stations over Italy in the years 2018 and 2019.

Keywords wind forecasting, probabilistic forecasting, dynamic forecast calibration, ensemble model output statistics, wind forecast based on real-time conditions, Numerical Weather Prediction models