Volume 20: Sustainable Energy Solutions for a Post-COVID Recovery towards a Better Future: Part III

Development of Optimal Power Generation Mix for Bangladesh in Different Socio-Economic and Emission Reduction Policy Scenarios Jubair Sieed, Ryoichi Komiyama, Yasumasa Fujii

Abstract

Access to affordable and clean energy is one of the basic requirements for sustainable growth. Bangladesh, as one of the developing nations, currently faces rapid growth in the electricity sector. However, limited potential of indigenous natural resources might jeopardize energy security in long-term. Adoption of modern clean energy sources like nuclear power, renewable energy generation technologies have their own economic and technical limitations.
In this study, we analyzed all available and potential energy sources for electricity generation considering techno-economic limitations and applied linear programming to obtain the best electricity generation mix that would ensure low cost and limited emission simultaneously. The whole country is geographically divided in to nine regions to obtain a high spatial resolution of current installed capacities and future potential for expansion. Moreover, hourly demand for all different nodes is projected so that high temporal resolution can be achieved. This dynamic optimal power generation mix model provides optimized generation and capacity mix from 2025 to 2050 at five years intervals with hourly dispatch schedule. Different economic growth scenarios for electricity demand projection and policy scenarios including carbon-emission limits and adaptation of new technologies have been considered for sensitivity analysis. This analysis provides a clear pathway for low-cost optimum electricity sector expansion by incorporation of modern technologies like nuclear power and renewables with storage capacity.

Keywords optimal power generation mix, electricity, nuclear power, renewable energy, carbon emission, Bangladesh