Volume 11: Sustainable Energy Solutions for Changing the World: Part III

Analysis of Electricity Demand of Pakistan During the COVID-19 Pandemic Wasif Tahir, Ahmad Nadeem, Naveed Arshad

Abstract

With a population of 220 million, Pakistan is the sixth populous country in the world. The first case of COVID-19 in Pakistan was reported in late February 2020 but at least for the first wave the country managed to successfully flatten the curve by August 2020. It was observed that energy usage is correlated more to the lockdown rather than the COVID-19 peak. The nationwide lockdown in Pakistan was enforced in March 2020, which resulted in a year-on-year decrease in electricity consumption of 9% for the month. However, only an insignificant (0.09% year-on-year) increase in energy consumption was seen in June 2020, when the number of COVID-19 cases peaked. During the lockdown period, performance of the short-term load forecasting models was impacted negatively. This impact created unit commitment and dispatch uncertainties for grid operations. Following the curve flattening, we observe a shift to the normal daily energy demand in the country.

Keywords Covid-19, energy demand, power system planning, short term load forecasting, neural networks