Volume 5: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part IV

Driving Forces of Electricity Consumption Growth in China’s Three Industries Based on Kaya-LMDI Methods Shan Jiang, Yongnan Zhu, Guohua He, Qingming Wang

Abstract

Electric power plays an important role in the development of a nation’s economy, and it improves human life. Therefore, understanding the driving forces behind the growth and consumption of electricity will help leaders plan energy savings and create economic policies. Using the LMDI that is based on the Kaya identity, this paper decomposes the factors driving the growth of electric power consumption in the Chinese production sector into the effects of population size, economic development, regional economic structure, regional industrial structure, and electricity consumption intensity. The study finds that the national electricity consumption for production increased by 2,143 TWh from 2007 to 2016. The increasing power consumption intensity inhibits the growth of electric power consumption for production, which has led it to decrease by 1,408.2 TWh, and the suppression effect is more significant in the secondary industry. Economic growth is the main driving force behind the growth of electricity consumption for production, which has led it to increase by 3,770.6 TWh, most obviously in the eastern region. Population growth promotes electricity consumption; however, the impact of this has been relatively small. The regional economic structure has a negative effect on power consumption growth; however, there is a big difference among provinces. To delay the growth of electric power consumption, it is necessary to strengthen technological innovation and management, as well as to pay attention to industrial structure adjustment and energy conservation technology promotion in the central and western regions. Furthermore, we should improve the consumption efficiency of the secondary industries.

Keywords electricity consumption growth, driving forces, LMDI, energy saving