Volume 3: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part II

Investment Choices and Capacities at Risk in Decarbonizing the EU Electric System Gildas Siggini, Sophie Demassey, Edi Assoumou

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the implications of fully or nearly fully decarbonizing the European electric system by 2050. Future power mixes trajectories are computed with a 5 year time step at country level using eTIMES-EU, a bottom-up optimization model for the EU power sector. By comparing a near carbon neutral case (TGT90) with a fully decarbonized system (NEUTR), we discuss the additional costs, capacities and trading implications. Increasing the ambition from 90% mitigation goal to strict neutrality requires 32.6% more investments in 2050, 394 GW additional solar capacity in 2050 and more reliance on trade between countries.

Keywords optimization, long-term energy planning, decarbonization, interconnected electric system