Volume 2: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part I

The Impact of Energy-Economical Behavior on Long-Term Energetic Retrofitting Roadmaps: A Vine Copula Quantile Regression Approach Jannick Töppel, Timm Tränkler, Christian Wiethe

Abstract

Energy efficiency is at the core of multiple national climate protection plans. Consequently, roadmaps for energy efficiency measures aim to undercut certain energy consumption limits for residential one- and twofamily households. However, these roadmaps are often based only on physical building parameters, neglecting the impact of occupant behavior. In this paper, we apply vine copula quantile regression to derive residential household specific conclusions on optimal long-term energetic retrofitting roadmaps under consideration of energy-economical behavior of the occupants. Our analysis shows that these behavioral factors highly impact the recommendation of certain energetic retrofitting roadmaps. Compared to generic approaches this leads to average savings of 8.2% and up to 32.8% in exceptional circumstances. We conclude that future policy decisions on energy efficiency measures for residential buildings should consider behavioral factors to lever their effects.

Keywords vine copula quantile regression, energy conservation in buildings, long-term energetic retrofitting roadmaps, energy-economical behavior