Volume 2: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part I

Transport Electrification: A Global Simulation of the Penetration of Electric Vehicles Runsen Zhang

Abstract

Switching to electricity for road transport is considered as a promising solution to energy transition and CO2 emission reduction. In this paper, an integrated assessment model, which contains an elaborate transport module for detailed behavioral and technological descriptions, is employed to investigate how the energy use and emission profiles would be altered by the electric vehicle (EV) adoption. A set of scenarios is created according to policy interventions for the promotion of electric mobility. The results show that the EV financial incentives will significantly boost the market shares and reduce effectively the CO2 emissions produced by the light-duty vehicle, while carbon pricing only exerts a moderate influence. The regional heterogeneity of emission trajectories across various countries indicates that incentives for EV adoption require more attention in developing counties. Policy Instruments to promote electric mobility would entail considerable costs, which should be considered in the policymaking.

Keywords transport electrification, electric vehicles, energy mix, emissions, integrated assessment model