Volume 49

Scenario Analysis for Energy Transition Integrating Global and Local Perspectives You Li, Weisheng Zhou, Yafei Wang

Abstract

Mitigation pathways are critical in achieving carbon neutrality. However, there is still uncertainty about the potential of these technologies. Therefore, it is necessary to develop possible scenarios for such technologies to facilitate forward-looking decision-making in national energy strategies. In this study, Japan’s energy dynamics from 2010 to 2050 are examined, focusing on shifts from fossil fuels to sustainable sources within a declining population and expanding economy context. Utilizing the Glocal Century Energy Environment Planning (G-CEEP) model, Various scenarios for Japan’s future energy system to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 were examined. This transition suggests profound impacts on national energy policies and economic strategies, supporting Japan’s commitment to sustainable development and environmental stewardship. This research contributes to understanding the integration of energy policy with macroeconomic and environmental objectives in a transitioning economy.

Keywords carbon neutrality, multiple scenarios, mitigation technologies, integrated energy assessment model, scenario analysis