Volume 47

Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Integrate Energy Modeling and Stakeholder Networks in Urban Low-carbon Energy Planning Zhi Wei Ngion, Weiqi Li, Linwei Ma, Maximilian Arras, Xingyuan Yang, Zheng Li

Abstract

The planning of urban low-carbon energy transition needs to be supported by scientific methods. However, current methods cannot integrate energy and social systems well. Conceptual frameworks can overcome this by expanding the research scope and identifying inter-disciplinary relationships, but it lacks quantitative approaches. This paper proposes an urban low-carbon energy planning method, which uses Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) to quantitatively integrate energy modeling and stakeholder network maps (SNM) based on Energy systems-Sustainability-Governance-Operation (ESGO) Conceptual Framework. The method includes 5 steps: 1) Propose a Conceptual Framework to explain the interactions between energy and social systems; 2) Energy System Modeling; 3) Social System Modeling; 4) Construct FCM; 5) Multi-scenario Analysis. A case study on Shanxi Transition Comprehensive Reform Demonstration (STCRD) Zone is used to verify the method feasibility. The results indicate that: 1) The method is feasible by depicting the interactions between social relations and energy technology changes; 2) The case study implicates energy saving is preferable in order to achieve carbon emission targets. Stakeholders’ inclination towards low-carbon emissions is inducive to economic growth. Plans need to repeatedly adjust resource allocation and control the transition rhythm according to actual situations while maintaining long-term goals.

Keywords Urban Low-carbon Energy Planning, ESGO, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, stakeholder network, energy model