Volume 47

Study on the Strategic Path of Carbon Peaking in the Building Sector–based case study of Shaanxi, China Yingyue Li, Siyu Wang, Haizhi Luo, Xiangzhao Meng

Abstract

China’s carbon emissions from the building sector have exceeded 50% of the national total emissions. Energy saving and carbon reduction in the building sector is of great significance to China’s “doublecarbon” strategy. In this study, the future development of the building sector in Shaanxi Province is divided into a baseline scenario (BAS), a low-carbon peak scenario (LCS), and an enhanced low-carbon scenario (ELS), using static forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the probability of BAS peaking before 2030 is only 19.9%; the peak time of LCS is around 2030, and its probability of peaking before 2030 is 65.05%; and in ELS, the probability of peaking is 2026, and the probability of peaking before 2030 is 99.9%. The peaks of BAS, LCS and ELS are 101.97 million tons, 97.97 million tons and 91.28 million tons, respectively, indicating that the enhanced energy conservation measures and the adjustment of the energy-use structure have an obvious effect on the control of carbon emissions. The results of the thesis provide a reference for the formulation and implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies and measures in the building sector, and provide suggestions for the path to carbon peaking in the building sector.

Keywords building sector, carbon emissions, scenario analysis, Shaanxi Province