Volume 33: CCUS Technologies for the Carbon Neutrality: Part I

A study on investment decision of BECCS power plant based on real options Shuanglin Song, Shuangqi Song, Jian Guo

Abstract

In order to explore the investment strategy issues of biomass carbon capture and storage (BECCS) power plants and the influence of cost control and policy incentives on the investment strategy of BECCS power plants so as to realize the wide application of BECCS technology in China, based on real options theory, this paper establishes a triple tree model for investment decisions in BECCS power plants by fully considering uncertainties such as crude oil price, coal price, biomass fuel price, investment cost, and operation cost. The net present value (NPV) and total investment value (TIV) of the BECCS power plants are determined by the algorithm analysis to explore the investment decision problem of the BECCS power plants. In addition, this paper uses sensitivity analysis to explore the impact of carbon trading market, cost control and policy incentives on the investment strategy of BECCS power plants. The results show that (1) the TIV of BECCS power plants in 2021 is CNY 9468.95, so the investment project is feasible, but since the NPV of BECCS power plants in 2021 is less than zero, it is not suitable for immediate investment, and investors should postpone the investment to make a profit; (2) The decrease in coal price has the largest effect on the increase in NPV of BECCS power plants, and the decrease in biomass fuel price and the increase in the investment subsidy factor have a significant contribution to the increase in NPV of BECCS power plants, but even if the coal price and biomass fuel price change by -100% or the government takes the full amount of subsidy for the initial investment cost, immediate investment still cannot be achieved. Therefore, in addition to cost control and policy incentives under the current carbon trading market, the government has to seek other more effective ways to promote the deployment of BECCS power plants.

Keywords biomass-carbon capture and storage technology, real options, triple tree model, sensitivity analysis