Volume 4: Innovative Solutions for Energy Transitions: Part III

Impact Of Climate Change to the Total and Peak Energy Demands of A Northern Finnish Building By 2050 Pulkkinen J, Louis J-N, Pongracz E

Abstract

Due to climate change, global average outdoor temperatures are expected to further increase, modifying the energy demand of the buildings from today. As new buildings are constructed to last, the impact of climate change should be taken into account during the design phase. The objective of this study is to investigate the changes in total and peak energy demands in buildings having different levels of thermal insulation, to explore if the impacts of climate change are similar to all selected building types by 2050. The impact of climate change to the weather data is gathered from different climate change projections to achieve a comprehensive analysis of the possible future directions. The new weather files are created using ‘morphing’ method and using meteorological test reference year for building simulation and measured weather data for constructing the future weather files. The results indicate that the energy demand will decrease by 6-12% in passive building types by 2050, with heating demand decreasing 6-13% and by starting to have cooling demand in A1B, A2 and RCP8.5 scenarios for passive building. The scenarios with higher projections for temperature increase also have larger decreases in total energy demands indicating that the starting of having cooling demand does not overcome the decrease in heating demand. Moreover, the peak demand for heating is projected to decrease in the future but, at the same time, peak cooling demand starts to occur, which may need to be considered in the future energy system constraints.

Keywords climate change, energy demand, heating demand, cooling demand, peak capacity, North Finland